(UPDATED) MMA-NEWS.NET TOP TEN WELTERWEIGHTS
By John Gagne
1. GEORGES ST. PIERRE
2. THIAGO ALVES
3. JON FITCH
4. JAKE SHIELDS
5. JOSH KOSCHECK
6. MATT HUGHES
7. MATT SERRA
8. CARLOS CONDIT
9. PAULO THIAGO
10. DAN HARDY
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John’s UFC 95 Predictions and Worth the bet! |
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UFC 95 Fight |
John’s Pick |
Method |
Round |
Minute |
Worth the bet? |
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Diego Sanchez vs Joe Stevenson |
Winner: Diego Sanchez |
Split Decision |
3 |
5 |
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Damian Maia vs Chael Sonnen |
Winner: Damian Mai |
Submission |
2 |
3 |
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Rory Markham vs Dan Hardy |
Winner: Rory Markham |
Unanimous Decision |
3 |
5 |
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Nate Marquardt vs Wilson Gouveia |
Winner: Nate Marquardt |
Unanimous Decision |
3 |
5 |
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Paulo Thiago vs Josh Koscheck |
Winner: Josh Koscheck |
Technical Knock Out |
2 |
3 |
Not Worth It |
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Junior Dos Santos vs Stefan Struve |
Winner: Junior Dos Santos |
Knock Out |
1 |
4 |
Not Worth It |
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Terry Etim vs Brian Cobb |
Winner Terry Etim |
Technical Knock Out |
2 |
3 |
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Mike Ciesnolevicz vs Neil Grove |
Winner: Mike Ciesnolevicz |
Technical Knock Out |
2 |
3 |
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Paul Kelly vs Troy Mandaoniz |
Winner: Paul Kelly |
Technical Knock Out |
2 |
3 |
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Per Eklund vs Evan Dunham |
Winner: Per Eklund |
Submission |
1 |
4 |
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DIEGO SANCHEZ: BETTER OFF AT 155?
By John Gagne
Since Diego has been in the UFC he has chose to fight out of his weight class since. He was never a big middleweight when he won the first season of TUF. When he dropped to welterweight I thought he would be much better suited for that division. But his last four fights have been less then stellar. Two of those four were losses, and the other two were less than impressive wins over sub-par competition.
Now we have a chance to see Diego to perform at what I believe is his true weight class. He will be large for a lightweight, a lot larger than he was at welterweight. He will finally have a chance to fight guys smaller than him.
However, his first test will not be an easy one. He will take on Joe Stevenson, who has been on a slight decline as of late. Hopefully this fight will get Diego to realize that this weight class will suit his style and size better.
He already holds a win over number one contender Kenny Florian. Although that fight took place at middleweight, and Kenny has grown amensly as a fighter. The potential for a rematch at lightweight already has me wondering who will take it.
I also believe this move to lightweight creates a more realistic chance for Diego to attain a UFC title. He lost to the number three and four welterweight fighters, so that leads me to believe he would lose to GSP. Considering GSP beat both of the fighters that beat Diego. Sanchez can match up well with anyone in that weight class. He has a very good ground game. Both in submissions and submission defense, and both sides of the wrestling game, as well as cardio for days. If he an tune his striking game a little more he has a chance to fight for the lightweight title by the end of 2009 beginning of 2010.
UFN 17: THE REVIEW
By John Gagne
Last night we saw Joe Lauzon take a little bit of damage on route to a second round submission win. His ground game looked amazing. The transitions were flawless, and he changes up his attacks. Going for leg locks, arm bars and chokes, with versatility like that Lauzon will be a game opponent for anyone.
Jeremy Stephens looked decent last night. Now that he is working with Hermes Franca. We can assume his ground game will be ever improving. If he can step up his submission defense, I think Stephens can play the roll of gatekeeper for new lightweights.
In my pick of the night Josh Neer submitted Ultimate Fighter winner Mac Danzig After I watched the Clay Guida fight again. I realized that Mac has a hard time with guys that move forward. And that is all Neer did. Neer showed decent boxing and a much-improved BJJ game. I think Josh Neer need to fight a guy like Clay Guida or Frankie Edger and see if he can be a true contender.
Cain Velazquez has kept his winning streak alive with an impressive performance. This guy is definitely going to be a threat in the heavyweight division once he has a few more fights under his belt.
In the nights biggest upsets Rich Clementi was submitted in the very first round via guillotine. That win may have saved Gleison Tibau from his pink slip. While Rich Clementi falls back down the over populated, talent rich lightweight division.
Overall my picks went very well. Winning 8 of 10 picks, I was hoping for a perfect night, but the loss by Rich Clementi and Matt Grice kept me at 80%.
ULTIMATE FIGHT NIGHT: LAUZON VS. STEPHENS
By John Gagne
This fight does not have the potential to be a ground battle like the Franca vs. Lauzon. But what it does have is two tough as nails fighters, who are looking to move up the UFC lightweight ranks. This fight will be a battle. Each fighter brings a different game to the table.
Joe Lauzon started off his career as a premier grappler for NAGA or the North American Grappling Association. These grappling events featured Joe in many tough superfights. He also made a name for him self in the New England MMA scene at a very young age.
Joe didn’t get his big break until UFC 63. Where we saw Joe TKO MMA legend Jens “Little Evil” Pulver. Joe also holds a victory over WEC featherweight champ Mike Thomas Brown. Joe has only seen defeat two times in his career in the octagon. The first was against fellow New Englander Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian. And the second loss was Manny Gamburyan in the semi-finals of TUF 5.
Jeremy Stephens is no slouch. He is a tough guy that’s very well rounded. Besides Spencer Fisher, I believe Joe Lauzon will be he toughest test in UFC. Most of Jeremy’s victories are via TKO or KO. Knowing that we can all assume he wants a stand up war. Even though Joe Lauzon has improved his striking. I feel the edge goes to Stephens.
However Jeremy Stephens has suffered two of his three losses by submission. If you look at Joes record on the other hand. He has most of his wins via submission. It will be interesting to see how this fight unfolds. Can Joe Lauzon get Stephens down? I think so, that’s why I am taking him in the second round rear naked choke or heel hook.
The odds for this fight are pretty good. The bookmakers are not making Joe a huge favorite. I would take him hands down.
Champion Vs. Champion
By John Gagne
The fight between GSP and BJ Penn is the biggest in MMA history. Not only is there a huge rivalry between the two combatants. They are both champions in there respected weight classes. We have seen the best versions of each man over their last few fights. I do have to say; I believe that BJ has improved more than GSP has.
This fight is going to be a chess match. Both men know each others strengths and weaknesses. We saw in their first fight. That GSP virtually took BJ down at will. While BJ threw Georges off of his game with his jab and improved boxing. I personally thought if BJ trained a little more serious; he would have won that fight. BJ was too cocky back then. His ego definitely got the best of him in that fight. Now that he is taking this fight serious there may be a different outcome. I will analyze this fight and break down what each man will need to do to be victorious.
GSP will need to take BJ down, and hold him there. Even though BJ is great off his back. A guy as good as GSP should be able to avoid the submission attempts. While progressing to a better position and landing strikes. He will also need to use his reach and his kicks. Training with Kru Phil Nurse has allowed GSP’s Muay Thai to grow exponentially. His training with Team Jackson has also brought him amazing training partners. And a coach that can break down an opponent, and create a great game plan.
I do see some aspects that may affect GSP’s performance. If BJ can stop the take down. GSP may get frustrated, especially if BJ can land strikes and make him pay for his failed attempts. If he allows BJ to counter punch and use his jab, he may not leave this fight the winner.
For BJ to win he needs to avoid takedowns. That is really the biggest and most important factor of tis fight. If he can sprawl and brawl. BJ can take this fight. He also needs to out strike GSP, which he is capable of and some say may have already done. His BJJ will only come into play if GSP can get tired, or get stunned and give BJ an opening.
I think we all know what BJ cannot do in this fight…get taken down. If he is fighting off his back, it will be a long night. In the past if BJ cannot implement his game, or stay off his back he tends to fight poorly.
Saturday night’s main event will come down to a game of inches. The first person to make a mistake, will pay for it. I do think that BJ will be victorious. I just think he has the ability to get into GSP’s head and throw him off his game. Its going to be a war, and it could go the other way. But I do not see that happening. BJ in the 4th via TKO
I would definitely place a bet on this fight. Honestly, you can bet on either fighter, depending on your personal opinion. But BJ is the underdog, and the odds for him are a lot better. And he is going to finish the fight before the 25 minute mark.
THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJ PENN
By John Gagne
We all know that BJ Penn posses an amazing Brazilian Ju-Jitsu game, but what else does he offer. And do his weaknesses out weigh his strengths? I will review them all, and take a look at the components that make up a great fighter. And if being a great fighter in one aspect, while lacking in others. Will help or hurt him, and how much.
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Out of those strengths and weaknesses. BJ has many more strengths then weaknesses. Now we have to weigh them all. We will see how much these strengths and weaknesses. And figure out when it comes to the total package as a fighter, which prevails.
The biggest strength is without a doubt is his BJJ ability. Followed closely by his warrior spirit. These I feel are the most significant out of all BJ’s strengths. He out classes everyone he faces on the ground. And when BJ wants to fight, he is more driven then many other fighters. His Hawaiian spirit is felt every time he steps in the cage. Some would also say he has a little bit of a crazy side. As we have seen when he licks the blood of his gloves after any victory where his opponent bleeds.
As for his weaknesses, the number one is his ability to stay motivated while training. BJ has shown in many fights; like the second Matt Hughes fight or the first fight with GSP. That he does not always show up prepared. I believe his training partners and talent all attest to this. He has been known to have everyday fighters with training with him. Now I am not taking anything away from his camp. We just do not see the big names helping his preparations. His amazing talent is also weakness. Things come so easy to BJ, he thinks that at 80% he is better than most at 100%. In some cases it’s true, but that will not fly with GSP.
If I had to say pick between which BJ possesses, more strengths or weaknesses. I pick strengths. Even though the weaknesses BJ has may directly cause his demise. I do feel that his strengths will make up for it.
MMA-NEWS.NET TOP TEN WELTERWEIGHTS
By John Gagne
1. GEORGES ST. PIERRE
2. THIAGO ALVES
3. JON FITCH
4. JOSH KOSCHECK
5. JAKE SHIELDS
6. DIEGO SANCHEZ
7. MATT HUGHES
8. MATT SERRA
9. KARO PARISYAN
10. CARLOS CONDIT
MMA-NEWS.NET TOP TEN LIGHTWEIGHTS
By John Gagne
1. BJ PENN
2. SHINYA AOKI
3. EDDIE ALVEREZ
4. JOACHIM HANSEN
5. GESIAS CAVALCANTE
6. KENNY FLORIAN
7. SEAN SHERK
8. JOSH THOMPSON
9. TATSUYA KAWAJIRI
10. SATORU KITAOKA
By John Gagne
1. “Sugar” Rashad Evans
2. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
3. Forrest Griffin
4. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida
5. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell
6. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
7. Dan “Hollywood’ Henderson”
8. Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva
9. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine
10. Antonio Rogerio Noguiera