UFC Fight Night 16 predictions, preview and analysis
UFC Fight Night 16: “Fight for the Troops” is set to go down at the Crown Coliseum in Fayetteville, N.C., TONIGHT (Wednesday, December 10). The television event airs LIVE on Spike TV at 8 p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the three-hour telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during an exciting line up of fights.
To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.
If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.
Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?
But enough about me, at least for the time being.
Let’s get cracking:
Josh Koscheck (11-3) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2)
Josh Koscheck may be at a turning point in his career. Coming off a lopsided unanimous decision loss to the ever-improving Thiago Alves at UFC 90, “Kos” has to prove that he still belongs at the top of the welterweight contender list. Granted, the fight against “Pitbull” was on short notice, but two straight losses in a division with this much depth is as good as a pink slip when it comes to title considerations … especially after already getting a crack at Georges St. Pierre — now the current division kingpin — and coming up short. While we didn’t see much of it at UFC 90, Kos had repeatedly demonstrated that he’s a tremendous wrestler who can take down just about anyone at will. He’s also starting to utilize that position more effectively as we saw in his drubbing of Chris Lytle at UFC 86. The “X” factor for me in this fight in his confidence. Yoshihiro Yoshida is not your average import. Anyone expecting the mundane style of Ryo Chonan or the antics of Akihiro Gono are in for a big surprise. “Zenko” is a smashing machine with an impeccable Judo resume. He made his mark in Cage Force so he not only knows how to fight inside a cage, he’s adept at using elbows, too. He’s also the man, who in his stateside debut at UFC 84, choked Jon Koppenhaver so hard that the self-proclaimed “War Machine” woke up the next morning ranting about burning villages in the Philippines and stabbing total strangers. Yoshida may still have a chip on his shoulder after getting burned by Karo Parisyan in their scrapped bout at UFC 88, and I fully expect him to try and take it out on Koscheck. Unfortunately, I don’t think Kos has recovered mentally from his loss to Alves and I predict he’ll be outclassed en route to his second straight unanimous decision loss.
Keys to victory:
Koscheck: Your wrestling will neutralize his Judo IF you can use it explosively. Failed shots that push him into the cage or keep it standing will result in you doing a 720 into the mat … head first. He’s strong enough to get back to his feet so be prepared to shoot ad nauseam. To top it off he knows submissions, so like a ‘64 Boston prostitute, beware of the choke.
Yoshida: The K-man may still be rattled from his loss to Alves. Open up with a devastating leg kick or a stiff shot to the head and you can break him in the first round. You may find yourself on your back if he brings his A-game, so give us your best Motoman SDA10 impersonation and use those elbows.
Prediction: Yoshida by unanimous decision
Mike Swick (12-2) vs. Jonathan Goulet (22-9)
Mike Swick is back after his unanimous decision victory over Marcus Davis at UFC 85 to take on the man with the worlds worst hairdo. Swick has gone to a decision in his last four fights and I think it’s starting to get under his skin. He was cruising right along at middleweight, winning five straight until a tough loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 69 convinced him he needed to drop down to 170 pounds. I thought he looked a little flat in a winning effort against Josh Burkman at Fight Night 12 but seemed to get his groove back in the impressive win over Davis. “Swicking out” notwithstanding, I expect to see more of the same against Goulet. “The Road Warrior” is definitely a game opponent. And he knows how to put on a show as we saw in his UFC 83 “Fight of the Night” against Kuniyoshi Hironaka. That being said, I can’t erase the memories of him going down against Duane Ludwig at Fight Night 3 or Josh Koscheck at Fight Night 6. Both Swick and Goulet are talented strikers but for my money Swick has cleaner, more refined stand-up and his combinations are rock solid. I don’t expect this one to go to the ground. In fact I don’t expect it to get out of the first round. While both deny it, I still think there is a little bad blood between the two. In early 2007 Swick was offered Goulet as an opponent and he passed, feeling Goulet wasn’t good enough to be in the cage with him. Goulet proceeded to call Swick out on the Internet for turning down the fight and like most men, Swick’s ego wasn’t going to take the high road. Originally scheduled for September 2007 until Swick pulled out with a rib injury, they finally get the opportunity to throw down and Swick gets the chance to prove that he was right, that Goulet isn’t good enough to hang with him. In this case, I happen to agree.
Keys to victory:
Swick: First there was “Swickotine,” then there was “Swicking-out.” What’s next, getting your ass “Swicked?” Forget about the cutsie nicknames and do what you do best: Throw leather. The highlight reel is calling …
Goulet: Swick is vulnerable when you take him out of his comfort zone. Get him to focus on your hair and he may be distracted long enough to get knocked out.
Prediction: Swick by TKO
Steve Cantwell (6-1) vs. Razak Al-Hussan (5-0)
This is our “Welcome to the UFC” bout. Former WEC light heavyweight champion Steve Cantwell is going to lock horns with Razak Al-Hussan and because Al-Hassan represents the unknown, I have to pick him as my choice for winner … though its hard to pick against a guy whose nickname is “Robot”. While four of Al-Hassan’s six wins have come via submission, the Brown Belt in Tae Kwon Do is very dangerous on his feet (I guess we know who Rogan is rooting for). Thanks to Lyoto Machida, Karate is the new jiu-jitsu and Al-Hassan is going to make us believers again. Cantwell has been on a bigger stage and had bigger fights, including an impressive stoppage over Brian Stann at WEC 35, but I can see him overextending himself to try and make an impression in his UFC debut. Both fighters are well rounded and while stylistically this is a good match-up, I think in the end Al-Hassan’s typically calm and relaxed demeanor will allow him to strategically pick Cantwell apart en route to an early stoppage.
Keys to victory:
Cantwell: Don’t worry, you’re not the only one who doesn’t know much about Al-Hassan. Make him come to you and let him show you his cards. How good are you at making a game plan on the fly? Even if you get annihilated, you still come from the same town as Sheri’s Ranch and that makes you a winner in my book.
Al-Hassan: You’ve got everyone in the dark about what you can and can’t do. That means you can try just about anything and we’d probably believe you meant to do it. That includes getting knocked out so take it slow and keep him guessing.
Prediction: Al-Hassan by TKO
Nate Loughran (9-0) vs. Tim Credeur (10-2)
Tim Credeur is riding his TUF 7 fame — and a win over fellow castmate Cale Yarbrough — into the UFC for another Fight Night appearance. I’m afraid this one won’t go as planned as he faces the submission machine Nate Loughran. Credeur is a likable guy, and he’s competent in striking and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Unfortunately competent only gets you so far and Credeur was bested by Psycho the Monkey and CB Dolloway while on The Ultimate Fighter Season 7. The win over Yarbrough at Fight Night 14 is not enough to convince me he can get past Loughran. Aside from his impressive debut, also at Fight Night 14, Loughran is a perfect 9-0 with eight of those wins coming by way of submission. He’s got great cardio and deceptively crisp striking. He also submitted Phil Collins at Cage Combat FC in 2007, presumably for his role as Roland Copping in “Frauds”. Expect Credeur to fight by-the-numbers until things eventually hit the ground. From there, Loughran will dismantle the TUF vet for his ninth submission win.
Keys to victory:
Credeur: Plan on doing more standing than the Queen’s Guard. You have a decent ground game, but do you really want to test it against a guy with eight submission wins in two years? Swing early and often.
Loughran: You’ve used more triangles than Euclid and I’m a firm believer that if it ain’t broke, you’re not trying hard enough. Lest anyone thinks you’re one-dimensional, you can always drag him into the third round and pound him out when he stops breathing from exhaustion.
Prediction: Loughran by submission
Jim Miller (12-1) vs. Matt Wiman (10-3)
The new and improved Matt Wiman is looking to make it five straight inside the Octagon when he clashes with the ruthless Jim Miller. Wiman has been impressive since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 5, finishing three of four fights and winning them all. He demonstrated dangerous knockout power with a second round upset of Thiago Tavares at UFC 85: “Bedlam” back in June of this year. His only loss was to Spencer Fisher way backat UFC 60 (Has it really been 31 PPV’s since Hughes pummeled Gracie???). Anyway, “Handsome” is looking good as of late and is probably the sentimental favorite, but I think he’s in over his head against Miller. This will mark the second fight inside the Octagon for Miller — he scored an impressive third round submission over David Baron at UFC 89: “Bisping vs. Leben” on October 18 in his promotional debut. Prior to the big win, Miller plied his trade primarily in smaller shows throughout New Jersey. In fact, his only loss was a unanimous decision to none other than Frank Edgar, the man he’s replacing in this fight. He holds a notable win over the very tough and experienced Bart Palaszewski via unanimous decision under the International Fight League (IFL) banner back in April and a staggering nine of his 12 wins are by submission. The only shot I give Wiman in this bout is a Tavares-like KO. Wiman is good, no question, but I think Miller is a whole lot better.
Keys to victory:
Wiman: See Credeur, Tim.
Miller: Use your excellent wrestling to take Wiman down and then do what you’ve done so many times before– submit him like a 1040. Be careful, he’s got power and a whole ‘lotta momentum so don’t get greedy or try to showboat.
Prediction: Miller by submission
That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC Fight Night 16: “Fight for the Troops” fight card click here. Remember to come check us out after the show for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Wednesday’s fights.
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let’s have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Fight Night 16.
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